German President Refers Lisbon to Courts

This latest move means that the Treaty will face legal tests in Germany and the Czech Republic, implying further delay to the completion of ratification.

The populist and conservative President of Poland has raised doubts about any further ratification moves for the Treaty of Lisbon, arguing that these have no significance after the Irish rejection. The President could still block ratification by Poland. However, this would put him at odds with the parliament and with the liberal PM, Mr. Tusk, who supports Lisbon. This unexpected Polish upset - not yet realized until the President makes his choice - adds to the climate of doubt about the fate of the Treaty. In the Czech Republic, both the Constitutional Court and the conservative Senate are pondering moves to block the Treaty.

President Sarkozy of France expressed disbelief that the Polish President could now block the Treaty, which his party had reluctantly supported in the recent past.

Meanwhile, President Sarkozy has also deferred a visit to Dublin to discuss Lisbon with the Taoiseach and other Irish politicians. This reflects a growing nervousness at the strength of public opposition to European pressure - perceived by many in Ireland as political bullying.

France has let it be known that new entrants to the Union will have their accession held up until the :Lisbon Treaty, or a variant thereof, is implemented. this is partly because a more efficient means of over-riding lone dissenters - by majority voters - is needed for a larger EU. EU accession treaties also have to cross-refer to existing treaties - so having clarity about the institutions and powers of the Union would be important.

However, there is another interpretation of recent statements that demonstrates how far some will go to impose the Treaty.

Many of the next group of would-be entrants have close relationships with the most recent East European applicants. The latter are very grateful for EU membership. They feel a pressure to demonstrate their European credentials. That, combined with their belief in the rapid expansion eastwards, makes them vulnerable to undue pressure over Lisbon.

At the same time, the message is going out that only Ireland’s resistance to Lisbon is blocking new expansion. The explains the hostile response of Croatia and Slovenia to the Irish public’s stance on Lisbon.

The non-ratification of Lisbon need not be a cuase for blocking expansion. A 27-member EU has functioned quite well of late. Confirming treaties up to and including Nice could be accepted as adequate.

By tying expansion to Lisbon, French leaders are setting East European states against Ireland. Those areas where Irish and East European concerns might converge are cast into the background. Irealnd can only counter this pressure by stepping up its communication with Eastern Europe, by responding to each and every French assertion with facts, legal arguments and reason. This requires a major diplomartic initiative in the region. So far, there is little sign of such activity from the Irish foreign ministry at Iveagh House.  

Story Not Covered by Social Democrat Leaning RTE and Irish Times

I have been re-reading my post on Fine Gael and the Lisbon campaign, uploaded a long time ago. As an update, readers should be aware that large numbers of  Fine Gael voters rejected the Treaty. The FG leader’s home constituency voted 60% No. While some blame Enda Kenny’s rather weak leadership, EAST-WEST EUROPE put its finger opn a more substantial cleavage within Fine Gael itself, one not covered by the national media. So, in the light of the Lisbon result, and amidst the fuming anger of Dr FitzGHerald or Avril Doyle, readers should go back to our original analysis, written before we had any inkling of how this campaign would end.

EWE will continue to offer analysis of the evolving relationship between Atlantic Europe and Eastern Europe, as well as the aftermath of Ireland’s Lisbon vote. However, over the next few weeks, we will experiment with a new schedule: there will be uploads and posts every Friday evening (c. 11 p.m.). If major events occur in midweek, we will post whenever we need to. But regular posts will be confined to Friday evening. On the other hand, we will attempt to add more depth and content, and to experiment with new material.

While the Czech PM was earlier quoted as not treating the passage of Lisbon as a sure bet, he now thinks it will pass. Yet, the mood is changing in Prague. President Sarkozy’s high profile visit has rattled some, seing it as none too subtle intervention in a country whose dominant ruling party is even split on Lisbon. The Czech Constitutional Court and the cautious Senate have also to rule on the Treaty.

President Vaclav Klaus is firmly against Lisbon while the PM is supportive.

But both are opposed to any pressure to speed up ratification in a way that might weaken proper deliberation.

Listen to a recent Radio Prague report on French efforts to influence internal Czech debate on Lisbon.

While endorsing more ratifications, praising the EU’s contribution to peace and supporting Lisbon, Finland’s Foreign Ministry officials said they will not leave a”friend” behind. There could be no question of a two-speed Europe. This is not quite the message we are hearing from Irish politicians or from the French.

Watch the newscast in English from Finland’s YLE Television (their equivalent of RTE).

Solidarity.

A feeling of togetherness and mutual support.

The sentiment shown towards the Irish Government  by EU states today, according to Micheal Martin,  Minister for Foreign Affairs.

But the word can also mean standing shoulder to shoulder aginst a third party. Is Brian Cowen being told to stand firm aginst his own people? Is Micheal Martin getting support from Europe in his struggle with Irish public opinion?

Given that Irish voters have clearly expressed grave concern about the perceived imbalance in power between the European center and the states,  many might ask if the Government would be better realigning itself with the people, stronger from their encouragement and support.

As noted in yesterday’s editorial here, Brian Cowen must eventually take sides.

While Taoiseach Brian Cowen issues bland statements in an almost apologetic tone, leaders of the East European Vizegrad group will be joined by President Sarkozy on Monday. Polish leaders will discuss Ireland’s vote with the German Chancellor on Monday when she has talks with Premier Tusk.

There is no evidence of Irish diplomatic action in Eastern Europe at this time. Dublin appears more focused on calming Franco-German nerves. If M Sarkozy succeeds in framing the options for the future and characterizing Ireland’s stance without any competition, the East Europeans may draw the same negative conclusions that were expressed by Croatian leaders at the weekend.

Many Irish people are rightly angered by the arrogant assertion of “onwards and upwards” coming from France and Germany this weekend. It has been said that 26 states could proceed to implement a version of Lisbon on a legal technicality.

In responding to this, Brian Cowen faces a make or break test of his leadership.

What kind of “respect” will he accord to the Irish verdict?

Firstly, it is unclear that Europe could just steam ahead, even with a modified version of Lisbon.

Secondly, such a policy, or ANY punitive response, will provoke a new kind of hostility to the EU project unlike anything seen here before. This will spread to other countries whose citizens’ opinions have been cast to one side. In other words, such a response by France and Germany would threaten the future of the EU itself. the Irish NO on its own does nothing but halt the train where it is.

Thirdly, if the Taoiseach and the Fine Gael leader fail to side with the Irish public against this latest form of pressure, the far left and far right looh lahs will gain real strength, something they do not have at present.

The first signal Ireland must now send to its EU partners is that the Lisbon project is terminated, and without any qualifications or caveats. Ireland should lobby smaller states, especially in Eastern Europe, to insist that all talk of full steam ahead is stopped.

While other parliaments may vote on Lisbon, Dublin should issue a statement to the effect that such decisions are to be viewed as of domestic consequence alone, since effective pan-European ratification has been terminated by Ireland in accordance with agreed procedures and legal provisions.

The voices from Paris and Berlin have been forceful. Brian Cowen’s must be equally so. Otherwise, the other bystanders will conclude that Ireland’s position is hopeless from the outset. There must be a clear slap down to all the threatening noises by Tuesday at the earliest.  Above all else, Mr. Cowen’s stance must not be in any sense apologetic. If it is, then his “respect” for the Irish verdict, like that of M. Sarkozy thus far, will amount to little more than empty verbiage.